CGHK is the first think tank in Hong Kong dedicated to the study of globalization.

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### Revitalizing Connections: How to Build a Path for "Re-Engagement" between China and the World

On March 11th, 2024, the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) concluded in Beijing. Alongside discussions on the annual Government Work Report and various economic issues, proposals and discussions regarding cultural exchange, particularly between China and foreign countries, garnered significant attention.

Among them, Jia Qingguo, a Standing Committee member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), former Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, and Director of the Center for China and Globalization, submitted two proposals to the CPPCC: "Proposal to Increase the Attraction of International Students to Study in China"([《加大吸引外国学生来华学习力度的提案》](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b7ah_dByBJZQs6-54ycRWg)) and "Proposal to Encourage Civil Society to Tell China's Story Well to the Outside World ([《鼓励民间对外讲好中国故事工作的提案》](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AwiFBqy8WBlLFIli6f24_Q))."

These proposals suggest reducing restrictions on non-governmental and Track 2.0 or Track 1.5 exchanges and encouraging retired officials, personnel in the diplomatic field, and relevant experts and scholars to participate in foreign exchange activities. They are highly constructive and feasible, especially against the backdrop of numerous bottlenecks facing current Sino-foreign exchanges, playing a positive role in expanding openness to the outside world and promoting cultural exchange between China and foreign countries.

Therefore, the Center for Globalization Hong Kong (CGHK) will hold an online seminar on the theme of "Sino-Foreign Cultural Exchange Proposals" to coincide with the conclusion of the NPC and CPPCC sessions.

The seminar will be chaired by Dr. Peter Qiu, Chairman of CGHK, and will feature Professor Jia Qingguo, who submitted the aforementioned proposals to the CPPCC, elaborating on his proposals for Sino-foreign exchanges. 

We will also invite renowned China experts, including Harry Harding, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy at the University of Virginia, Yawei Liu, Director of the China Program at the Carter Center, and Professor Wang Jiangyu, Director of the Center for Chinese Law and Comparative Law at the City University of Hong Kong, to serve as commentators. They will engage in in-depth dialogue and exchange with Dr. Qiu and Prof. Jia on the content of the proposals, the prospects and challenges of Sino-foreign exchanges, and other related issues.

The online seminar will be held on Tuesday, March 19, from 9:00 to 10:00 Beijing Time via Zoom. We welcome everyone to register and participate by clicking the link below or scanning the QR code on the poster.

CGHK Insight Workshop Theme:
**Revitalizing Connections: How to Build a Path for "Re-Engagement" between China and the World**


Introduction: **Sheldon Xie**, Research Fellow at the Center for Globalization Hong Kong

Moderator: **Peter Qiu**, Chairman of the Center for Globalization Hong Kong

Speaker: **Jia Qingguo**, Former Dean and Professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University


Commentators:

**Harry Harding**, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy at University of Virginia

**Yawei Liu**, Director of the China Program at the Carter Center

**Wang Jiangyu**, Professor at the City University of Hong Kong School of Law and the Director of the Centre for Chinese and Comparative Law


Time: **9:00 am to 10:00 am Beijing/Hong Kong/Taipei Time, Tuesday, March 19, 2024**

This workshop will be conducted in English. 
Zoom Webinar Registration: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_jclROKUJTYW4m9gvsXe7zg

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【CGHK Event Announcement】Build a Path for "Re-Engagement" between China and the World

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Global economic recession, regional conflict, and a dramatic shift of China’s covid quarantine measure in 2022 showed us that nothing will be impossible in the upcoming year. Headquartered in Hong Kong, the independent research institution CGHK officially released 10 Major Future Forecasts in 2023 Report. The report will be the third consecutive report in last 3 years with regards to the future forecast of the upcoming year. The report provided perspective oriented in-depth analysis in politics, economics, technology, and social issues. CGHK is founded by numbers of reputable researchers in 2019 under leadership of Professor Peter Qiu, making it the first fully independent think tank that dedicates in globalization research and outreach in Hong Kong.
 
What will 2023 bring to us? With an entire new outlook in 2023, CGHK predicts an increased risk of Taiwan Issue within the next 5 years, Russia-Ukraine conflict will be facing a possible inversion in strength, China’s new pandemic measures will affect other countries’ diplomatic policy regarding China. Below are the 10 forecasts:

# Political Forecast
 
### 1. Taiwan Issue will come to the first year of the “Risky 5 Years Streak”
After the midterm election ended in the United States, House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy stated he will put the Taiwan trip on schedule. This symbols United States officials will still visit Taiwan in 2023, United States will further escalate Taiwan's problems to use it as a tool against China. For China, Taiwan is tied to geopolitical tensions, technology supply chain safety, and core interest of China, with the coming of PLA’s 100 years anniversary in 2027 Taiwan problem could become a raising issue between year 2023 to 2027 and 2023 will become the first year of the escalating risk.

### 2. Sino-US relationship is facing more challenges shortly after show of positive signs
In early 2023 Secretary Blinken is expected to visit China to consolidate effort of Biden-Xi G20 summit meeting. As US Congress finishes reassemble and positive communication in economic cooperations and climate change efforts, there could be positive side of the Sino-US relationships. But the root cause and conflict of interest cannot be resolved, Taiwan problem, technology competition, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Korean Peninsula problems will become main concern between two nations and further escalate existing tensions.

### 3. Russia-Ukraine will be facing new inversion
With Zelensky visit the United States and increased support from the United States and NATO to Ukraine, Ukraine's armed forces have initiated strikes deep under Russian territory. This shows a higher possibility of inversion of the conflict. Russia’s effort to convert itself into a wartime economy will remain questioned. However, with Republican taken the house after the midterm election and the new facial year coming to a start there is also doubt whether the military and economic support from the United States is sustainable.
 
# Economic forecast

### 4. World economy continues souring and some developed countries might experience financial crisis
Global inflation problem remains unsolved, a huge possibility that the EU and Great Britain are stepping into a recession and the United States is also having a souring economy. Global GDP in 2023 will show a decrease. With the existing inflation problem we could see a tightened monetary policy in most countries and such monetary policy could bring a recession that will further discourage global investors. With panic and chaos in public market there will be a higher possibility of a financial crisis in developed regions.

### 5. A problematic first quarter for the Chinese economy, stalemate situation after second quarter 
A loosening pandemic quarantine regulation means a rapid increased covid patient within a short amount of time. Such problem comes with decreased economic movement and problems will be showed in the first quarter of 2023. On another side with a recession in United States and Europe more likely becoming a reality, decreased external demand means lack of export in China’s economy and a stimulate on consumer side will become major source of economic growth in China in 2023. However lack of confident on consumers will make stimulate policies having less effect. More market participant will remain an open view following second quarter in China’s market.

### 6. China government’s policy regarding treasury, taxation, and property will draw more attention in society
Chinese government will face more severe facial problems in 2023, government spending will decrease after lack of income following first quarter which makes the installation of stimulate effort more difficult. Government’s stabilizing growth policy will more rely on new monetary policy and bring more debt concerns. Government might impose new regulations on property tax, inheritance tax, and personal income tax but unlikely to have major regulation changes within 2023.
 
### 7. Chinese government increase stimulates on real estate sector
Real estate sector shows sign of downward growth. With local government reelection come with more concern of local government debt issues. Government stimulus on real estate sector could be converting from “guarantee of property transfer” to “more sales and promotion”. 
 
# Pandemic, Technology, and Social Prospect

### 8. Global pandemic is coming toward an end, with China’s reopen it will become a more concerned problem over other countries China related policy.
WTO will officially announce the end of pandemic in 2023 and China will reopen completely. With massive and rapid increase of covid cases in China there is more pressures from foreign countries. The height of China’s covid cases could come in the first quarter and international community will capture any movement and changes in China’s policy change such as openness of covid policy, effectiveness of policy, and change of variant of virus. All this factors could contribute to the policymaking of foreign countries toward China.
 
### 9. ESG and sustainable transition technology, raw materials supply chain industry will continue to become trending industries. 
Domestically, such technology will help to achieve China’s state CO2 commission plan, increase efficiency of energy conversion rate thus increase safety of China’s energy security. Internationally, climate change and sustainable growth transition is becoming a bipolar sector leaded by both United States and China, China’s support in related industry is helping the development of competitive advantage in international competition.

### 10. Metaverse is still a trending tech investment option
Tech giants in China will continue to bet on metaverse, AR/VR technology serve as an early entry port for Metaverse and could not be controlled by one single company. Metaverse with more features on gaming and virtual work space conflict is trending and a symbol of Metaverse stepping into a higher stage is the use of virtual asset in reality and we could see that such stage is coming to reality.
 
CGHK have successfully predicted the erupt of covid pandemic, Biden administration’s China policy and series of important incident globally since founded in 2019. In late 2021, CGHK have again preciously forecasted the expansion of NATO members after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a raise in nationalism globally. CGHK’s forecast have provided vital value for individuals and enterprises to avoid possible risk and to gain a significant advantage during volatity times.


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Center for Globalization Hong Kong Releases 10 Major Future Forecasts in 2023

In December 2021, the Center for Globalization Hong Kong (CGHK), a cutting-edge independent think tank based in Hong Kong, China, predicted the trend for the second consecutive year and solemnly launched the Top 10 Forecasts for 2022. The report provides a multi-dimensional forward-looking analysis of the global pattern in 2022 and beyond from political, economic and social aspects.

The 2022 forecast is as follows:

## Political field: The environment around China will be the focus

### First. The Sino-US relations have entered the era of “substantive deterioration”

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The CGHK believes that although Biden administration has avoided head-on collisions in Taiwan issues with China in the post-Trump period, the US containment strategy against China has shifted from comprehensive containment to a more precise one. The domestic political changes both within China and the US in 2022 will further solidify the differences in strategic interests between the two countries, and the Sino-US relations will officially enter the era of substantive deterioration in 2022.

### Second, the national unification is loaded, Taiwan`s role as bargain chip will increase

![5b25-itzixrs1907738.png](/uploads/5b25_itzixrs1907738_649fd801a0.png)

Taiwan`s future has developed in the direction of forcible unification. With rampant independence forces within Taiwan and the mainland's growing commitment to its reunification mission, fundamental changes are likely to occur between 2030 and 2035. Starting next year, the mainland will launch substantive "bullets" against Taiwan, and western countries, led by the US, will continue to promote Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

### Third, the Korean Peninsula will begin the end-war negotiations process

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Moon Jae-in, the president of ROK, who is stepping down in the presidential election in March, urgently needs to sign a final deal with the North before leaving office. So it is likely that the negotiations on the final deal will begin while Moon is in office, but the coming president remains uncertain.

### Fourth, the Western military alliance organizations are facing expansion and upgrading

![R-C (7).jpg](/uploads/R_C_7_82677d7bea.jpg)

In the face of China's rise, both the QUAD, the AUKUS, and even the G7 are likely to expand and upgrade. The European policies towards China are converging with the US, which has become an important means for NATO to coordinate internal differences.

## The Economy: Unbalanced recovery will face more political risks

### Fifth, China's economy faces "backing foundation": asset price rise vs financial and other risks

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China's economy will still face great downward pressure next year which affect the economic policies of China's major trading partners such as the US and Japan. Next year, under a relatively loose fiscal and monetary policy environment, China`s economy is highly likely to see a new round of asset price increases, including real estate prices. At the same time, the strong supervision that has triggered storms in many areas will gradually weaken in 2022. However, against the backdrop of many countries accelerating their reduced dependence on China`s economy and global inflation, China's economy will be increasingly disturbed by external uncertainties.

### Sixth. The global "scarcity economy" will continue

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Shortage of energy and semiconductor supplies will continue in 2022, as well as lithium batteries and some core raw materials. Countries in Europe and the US will put the issue of supply chain security to a new height, and China faces greater competition in the related fields.

### Seventh. The global camp differentiation in high-tech industry will intensify

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Chip has become a strategic resource in the international geopolitics. The US is integrating its own semiconductor supply chain to cope with the challenges in the field of high technology. In the future, the world's high-tech industry will appear to be represented by the two standards, two systems and even two sets of supply chain system, and the above trend in 2022 will make substantial progress.

## Social sector: The epidemic is expected to ease, while the future is still chaotic

### Eighth. The globe may walk out of the "black channel" of the pandemic

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Although the recent variations of the Covid-19 virus, such as Omicron, have brought new rounds of global epidemic, imposing greater pressures to states` prophylactic measures. With the national response gradually improves and the vaccine coverage steadily increases, the intensity of the global impact will gradually decline in 2022, though the pandemic will not end.

### Ninth, the metaverse technology is difficult to make breakthroughs, and will be imposed strict supervision by many governments

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With the evolution of VR technology, the technological prospects of the metaverse are promising for more people. However, the underlying technology and infrastructure that support the metauniverse will not make a big breakthrough next year. The so-called metaverse real estate and virtual currency will be more heated up by the market, which may force many governments to strengthen supervision.

### Tenth. Rising global populism

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In Europe, the number of far right-wing populist candidates in French election next year has increased and received considerable public support.In the US, the Biden administration has recently seen record low support ratings, and in the second half of 2022, when the midterm election comes, the global populist forces marked by the "Trumpism" will make a comeback. With the southern European countries facing an election year, the right-wing forces are generally on the rise.


The Center for Globalization Hong Kong was founded in April 2019 by Dr. Peter Qiu, a renowned TV commentator. Since its establishment three years ago, the CGHK has made accurate predictions about the changes of the US foreign policy and the development of the global epidemic during the Trump presidency. At the end of last year, the CGHK accurately predicted in its Top 10 Forecasts for 2021 that Trumpism will continue to exert impacts on US politics and the global economy will gradually recover, but the East and the West will show significant differences.

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The Center for Globalization Hong Kong has released its top 10 forecasts for 2022

In December 2020, the Center for Globalization Hong Kong(CGHK), a Hong Kong-based Chinese think tank, released four internal reports on Global Epidemic Vaccination Development in 2021, China Economic Forecast 2021, The Trend of China-US geopolitical Conflicts in 2021, and “2021: The End of Globalization?”。

Based on China as the foothold, the report conducted a multi-dimensional forward-looking analysis of the global landscape in 2021, and on this basis launched the top 10 Forecasts for 2021.

The report predicts the trend of the coming year from three dimensions of politics, economy and society.

The CGHK pointed out that, politically, Trumpism will continue to have an impact on US politics, coupled with the Biden administration's "professional diplomacy and precise strike" style, China's international environment will be relatively more difficult.

Economically, the CGHK believes that the global economy will gradually recover in 2021, but countries both in the East and the West will show significant differences in the recovery paths.

Socially, the CGHK points out that the world will still be deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.

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These ten forecasts will not only reshape the international political and economic pattern at the macro level, but also have a profound impact on everyone at the micro level. Details are as follows.
# Political prospects
## Trumpism + greater synergy between Europe and the United States = China`s international environment will deteriorate drastically
![特朗普主义.jpeg](/uploads/_227605b674.jpeg)
### First, the Biden administration is more "traditional" and "Trumpism" will continue to prevail

According to CGHK`s analysis, Biden's four-year term from 2021 to 2025 is more of a "transitional and weak presidency".

Biden's team will be struggling with the three tasks of preventing the pandemic, saving the economy and integrating allies. However, Biden will be unable to eliminate the Trumpism, which is the huge gap among economic and social classes.

In 2021, although Biden succeeded in taking office, there was little consensus among the political groups. The Biden administration is more like a transitional term, which is difficult to make differences both at home and abroad.

The election results clearly show that the Biden administration does not receive significant political support within the US. In 2021, the US showed a huge split domestically, and "Trumpism" still prevailed. Biden will face huge challenges to bridge this growing division, and will require extensive efforts to address the post-election distribution of benefits and coordinate blocs within the Democratic Party.

The CGHK predicts that if the problem cannot be resolved, another Trump-style populist president will undoubtedly take office in 2025.
![R-C (5).jpg](/uploads/R_C_5_75e7bcab5c.jpg)
### Second. Biden's China policy will show a style of "professional diplomacy and precise strike", and the Sino-US relations will enter a sensitive period.

The CGHK forecasts that China will face a more difficult international environment. In the past, US policy towards China swayed between "engagement" and "containment". However, the Biden government will not focus on "changing China", in order to obtain the overall stability of Sino-US relations.

This approach will clearly be in structural conflict with China's existing political values and strategic orientation, but will make fewer tensions than in the Trump era.

![OIP-C (2).jpg](/uploads/OIP_C_2_30add6837e.jpg)
### Third. It is predicted that in 2021, China will face an unprecedented sensitive and difficult international environment.

When Biden takes office, the US will more quickly return to a global leader, and its international appeal will be significantly different from the current Trump administration.

The CGHK believes that the West will strengthen its internal coordination. However, as Biden's new foreign policy improves, the willingness of the Europe and Japan to greatly tilt to the US in diplomatic actions will increase.

Although the Sino-EU investment agreement is expected to be signed and the Sino-Japan economic and trade relations will go further under the RCEP framework, the West will strengthen the strategic coordination with the US, which may force political entities like ASEAN and states in the Latin America to choose sides between China and the US.

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### Fourth, the global military will return to the era of alliance, and the risk of military conflict in the Indo-Pacific region will rise

The CGHK predicts that the global military pattern will gradually present the characters of bipolarity between the US bloc and the China-Russia bloc, and the major military forces will focus on the Indo-Pacific region. In the future, the risk of military conflict in the Indo-Pacific region rises sharply in the wake of multinational military coalitions.

The US will continue to pursue a competitive geopolitical strategy. The Biden administration will return to NATO military leadership, united with NATO Allies, in order to maintain the status as the strongest military power in the Indo-Pacific region.

At the same time, the US will focus on attracting Japan, Australia, India and other countries to conduct more frequent joint military exercises across the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the eastern Indian Ocean respectively. And the military coordination of the "Asian NATO" will be substantially strengthened. The joint exercises will be particularly concentrated in the disputed waters around China to demonstrate what it is called "freedom of navigation".

The Indian and Japanese governments will be more actively seeking to deepen security and defense cooperation with the US, inviting NATO forces, especially to conduct military exercises with Britain, France and Germany, so as to meet the purpose of military expansion and demonstrate military existence.

However, the CGHK also believes that the trend conducive to China is also forming, which is reflected in the further strengthening of China-Russia strategic partnership, involving the closer military, and technical exchanges. The two countries will focus on reciprocal military deployments and military exercises in the Pacific Rim and the northern Indian Ocean region. In particular, with the increasing tension across the Taiwan Strait, the possibility of a paramilitary alliance between China and Russia will increase.

# Economic outlook
## Sunrises in the east and rains to the west
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### Fifth, higher debt risk in Europe and the US, global investment attention diverted to Asia

The value of investment in European and American countries will continue to fall, characterized by low growth, low interest rates and high risk.
In a report released in early December, the OECD expects the global economy to grow by 4.2% in 2021, driven by positive factors such as vaccination. But the Eurozone and the US are likely to grow by only 3.6 per cent and 3.2 percent respectively.

The CGHK believes the US budget deficit and debt for fiscal year 2021 are expected to reach $20.3 trillion by the middle of next year, accounting for 98% of the country's GDP, the highest since World War II. The weak US dollar is likely to last well into the second half of next year. In the future, it will be difficult for the Fed to easily sell the balance sheet, resulting in artificially low Treasury yields and forcing a significant number of overseas investment institutions to leave the US debt.

As for Europe, European countries were in debt crisis and fiscal means are relatively limited. Eurozone inflation is expected to stop quantitative easing within European central banks in 2021. Public data show that European countries are the biggest contributor to negative yield bonds, with Sweden, Germany, Finland and the Netherlands accounting for 91%, 88%, 84% and 84%, respectively.

The yield on China's 10-year Treasury bonds has recovered to more than 3% since July, compared with negative interest rates caused by the Euro bond market. The CGHK believes that this shows that the investment expectations are more stable.

The CGHK finally mentioned a fact that the Biden`s administration will become more predictable. While intensifying competition between China and the US will continue, multilateral diplomacy will have the maneuver room to ease Trump's tariffs on China, which will spur investors to maintain positive expectations for Chinese assets and other emerging markets in Asia.
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### Sixth. Global consumption growth is limited in 2021, and regional differentiation is serious

In 2021, the global debt will be higher for the long term. The stimulus effect of sustained quantitative easing on the economy is gradually weakened, and developed countries expect to use consumption to promote economic development. However, the recovery of consumption will be very slow in 2021, as reflected in the impact of the epidemic on residents' income and willingness to consume, and showing a serious trend of regional differentiation.

The CGHK found the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index, released in November 2020, above Saudi Arabia (60.7), Sweden (53.0) and the US (52.2) are beyond 50. In contrast, Russia (35.0), Poland (34.6), Argentina (33.7), South Africa (33.1), Spain (32.2) and Turkey (30.0) are below 35.

Therefore, it is concluded that in 2021, consumption recovery will start in developed countries, thanks to direct fiscal transfer payment policies. On the premise that the demand side is already backward, the supply side is also impacted by the epidemic, residents' income is reduced, and the prospect of consumption recovery is worrying.

In addition, the global income gap continues to widen during the monetary cycle. If the global income distribution pattern does not improve significantly, the overall global consumption growth will be weak.

In 2021, the consumption capacity of low-income groups in developed countries is limited, and the marginal consumption propensity of high-income groups is low. The epidemic has further widened the existing prominent gap between the rich and the poor in developed countries, exacerbating the social contradictions and suppressing the growth of social purchasing capacity.

The CGHK concluded that the widening gap between the rich and the poor has also led to a sharp decline in global marginal demands in 2021, with an unbalanced demand structure and a serious consumption gap. Especially in developing countries, the epidemic is out of control and the high threshold for vaccines further aggravate poverty. Developing countries will generally show sluggish consumption, and the proportion of low-income population will further expand.

But China is doing much better than other developing countries. Fitch, an international rating agency, has raised its latest report on China's economic growth forecast in 2021. Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) reported on December 10 that the Chinese authority's successful control of COVID-19 has led to a domestic economic recovery, greatly exceeded expectations and is expected to improve the global economic environment.
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### Seventh. As traditional commodity trade encounters challenges, the emerging economy driven by science and technology stands out alone

The CGHK predicts that the global trade will show a weak recovery in 2021. From July to November 2020, global trade has risen for five consecutive months, and the WTO also forecasts a technical rebound of 7.2% next year.

However, as the outbreak rebounded in the fourth quarter, consumption and exports in the US and other countries have shown signs of slowing recently. Global labor revenue fell by 10.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2020, leaving about 70 million to 100 million people in extreme poverty. This shows that the trade in traditional goods will continue to face challenges in 2021 as the demand side deteriorates.

On the other hand, the impact of the pandemic on global trade may evolve from a temporary adjustment to a comprehensive reshaping. Both the form and the content of trade will continue to change. Formally, due to the flow of people and goods, new methods such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement will continue to develop.

China's cross-border e-commerce trade grew rapidly from 12.2% of total imports and exports to 35.6% from 2013 to 2019. In terms of the trade structure, the proportion in home products and consumer electronics products will continue to increase.

In addition, a new round of global technological revolution is brewing, the digital economy and the real economy are increasingly deeply integrated, the digital economy and the virtual economy are becoming new heights of the global trade.

At the same time, in the face of the complex and volatile international environment, the 14th Five-Year Plan proposed by Chinese policy makers also puts forward the implementation of national security strategies, including safe development into the economy, industry, infrastructure, strategic resources, science and technology, finance, ecology and other aspects. In the field of environmental protection, China proposed to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

All in all, in 2021, the technology-driven emerging economies will stand out.
![20201230162149_38415.jpeg](/uploads/20201230162149_38415_b202842368.jpeg)
### Eighth. It is predicted that vaccination will be blocked and reshape the  international landscape

The CGHK believes that global vaccination will face obstacles in 2021, so that the vast majority of the world's population will remain unvaccinated.

A new report from the World Bank predicts that COVID-19 could push 150 million people into extreme poverty (less than $10.90 a day) by 2021. Many of them live in crowded urban environments, working in the sectors most affected by lockdowns and mobility restrictions, and are likely to make lives by doing odd jobs without access to basic social services. Others live in areas where poverty rates are already fairly high, with about 82% living in middle-income countries.

Data from the Gates Foundation also show that more than 40 percent of the global population lives in economies affected by conflicts and violence.

According to the CGHK reports, the global demand for COVID-19 vaccine is 10 billion doses, and the global vaccine production capacity gap is too large, which means the vaccine demand in most regions will not be met in 2021.

In addition to production constraints, the adverse reactions to group vaccination against vaccine distribution problems will lead to the lack of smooth distribution of vaccines in 2021. For many developing countries with severe outbreaks, health assistance will be urgently needed next year due to their inability to purchase vaccines in large quantities at once or their lack of conditions to store vaccines.

The CGHK further pointed out that China, Russia, the US, the UK, Germany and other countries capable of developing vaccines will strive to conduct vaccine diplomacy and win political support from countries in backward regions. Diplomatic relations between vaccine suppliers and demand countries will be different from the past.

![20201230162604_18688.jpeg](/uploads/20201230162604_18688_5401d8fa0f.jpeg)
### Ninth, social protests are frequent, and vaccine distribution has become the trigger

The CGHK noted that vaccine distribution will be the trigger for frequent social protests.

In the US, for example, there are more than 310,000 deaths, though have enormous intensive care units(ICU) across the country. On December 12, the US. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for "emergency use."

The Financial Times reported that many healthcare providers in New York and beyond were pressing for massive requests from "the" rich and powerful " for the first round of vaccination. 

Such black markets are bound to aggravate the unfair distribution of vaccines, causing a series of social movements.

According to this, the CGHK predicts that countries around the world will not be completely free of the epidemic and the economy will not be effectively recovered. With vaccine production, there will be frequent outbreaks of social campaigns around the world over issues such as vaccine distribution and government subsidies. In particular, it is difficult for developing countries to give priority to vaccination, and the national vaccine scarcity will intensify massive dissatisfaction towards the authorities, leading to mass protest campaigns in some developing countries.
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### Tenth. It is predicted that new forms of social management will emerge, and the interaction between individuals and society will change for a long time

As China is the earliest major economy in the world which successfully control the pandemic, the superiority of China's anti-epidemic model and the failure of the western democratic model have become prominent topics of debate in the public opinion field.

According to some political scholars, one lesson from the "century of humiliation history" and civil war was that the country needed to have a strong, centralized and effective authority to maintain social order. The latest manifestation of the Legalist tradition is the massive top-down mobilization to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Of course, the Wuhan municipal governments should act earlier, rather than stop the spread of information about the new disease.

Due to the long-term impact of the pandemic, there has been a global expansion of government authorities, amid a squeeze on civil society and shrinking economic activity.

The CGHK predicts that in 2021, as the pandemic continues, global controls will be accustomed to lockdowns, screening and action restrictions; personal information collection such as travel codes and real-name authentication systems will be further promoted worldwide and expanded from health to other aspects of social life.

The CGHK further concluded that the technology-driven social management approach will be more advanced, and the ability to perceive the social panorama will continue to improve. At the same time, the individual acceptance of collective force intervention will continue to deepen, and the way individuals interact with society will change for a long time.

From this point of view, the epidemic has changed society far beyond the virus itself, but has exerted a profound impact on social governance and other aspects, and each of us will be in it.

The above is all of the CGHK's Top 10 Forecasts for 2021.

In 2020, the CGHK tracked globalization trends throughout the year and launched a series of research reports. In addition to the in-depth analysis of the global political pattern and the global economic situation, on the global outbreak tracking research, the CGHK in the first quarter warning global outbreak will last more than two years.

The four internal reports mentioned above respectively predict the trends of vaccine distribution, China's economy, the conflict between China and the US, and the globalization trend. Interested friends can join the [Peter Qiu Club] supreme members and super members to obtain the report.

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The Center for Globalization Hong Kong: Top 10 most likely trends to happen in 2021

Author: CHEN Shiyi


Recently, the US has cut off the supply of EDA software and passed domestic laws such as *the Chip and Science Act* and *the Inflation Reduction Act* in an attempt to exclude China from the chip industry chain and supply chain through bullying. From the perspective of research and development, the US itself has its core technologies, and it does not want these core technologies to be exported to China; from the perspective of the supply chain, the US chip industry is currently facing a shortage of production capacity, so the above-mentioned moves are aimed at taking the global chip industry under its wing.

Taiwan is in a dilemma. How will Taiwan’s enterprises, scientists to view the United States on the matter of China chip constraints in the end?

If the focus of this geopolitical competition between the US and China is on Taiwan, the result would be decided by South Korea. Is South Korea, which is torn between joining CHIP4 and not joining it, being sincere or just begging for help?

Will the Southeast Asian countries, led by Malaysia, become important partners in China's chip industry breakthrough?

How will Japan deploy its plans to confront China in accordance with the US? And are Japanese companies and scientists as willing as the authorities to fight China to the end?

......

On 20 August, Dr Peter Qiu, Chairman of the Centre for Globalization Hong Kong, invited ten experts to discuss the above series of questions and to analyse the current world economic environment at three levels: national, corporate and personal, in order to gain insights into the direction of China's development and to find the direction of the economy in the remaining months of the second half of the year.

Here are some of the key insights from Dr Peter Qiu and some of the guests.

Thomas Parker: A Canadian Prime Minister once said that "being around China is like sharing a bed with an elephant". An elephant may not be unfriendly, but its sphere of influence is so powerful that it can hurt the innocent when it rolls over. Just as China has a population of 1.4 billion people, which allows us to profit greatly from it, its negative impact will also be relatively greater. Of course, I hope that both China and the United States can cooperate anyway, but the Chinese leaders may think that the gap between China and the United States is narrowing in various fields and that one day they will catch up with the United States, and time is on your side. And for sure, the Chinese leaders are happy to see this happen, so let's wait and see.

Zhu Jianrong: Japan's advantage in the field of chips is the aspect of materials. Japan still has an advantage on some of the semiconductor materials. Japan still has an advantage. However, Japan's research and development and processing capabilities for chips are not really strong. Now the United States has an immediate need for Japan on the issue of chips and the Taiwan islands, and Japan also has some small calculations of its own, it also has an immediate need for the United States, for example, on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands, the Japanese side is looking forward to the United States to step in, hoping that the United States will internationalize the issue. For Japan, the best option in its national interest is to strike a good balance between China and the US, both in terms of strengthening ties with China economically and keeping up with the US in terms of security.

Kim Jin-ho: The US wants Japan and South Korea to join Chip4, and Japan and South Korea are a contradictory pair that are also competing. Japan has an idea behind the US: we and Taiwan have no problem with following you, the key is still South Korea. The so-called Chip4 has no real meaning if South Korea is not firmly with you. But the problem is that once this kind of thing goes in, it will be very difficult for South Korea in the future, and the rules of the game set by the US and Japan as well as Taiwan and the island may not be what South Korea wants. Therefore, this makes South Korea in a dilemma. At the moment, what is also more important than the SAD issue is the semiconductor issue between the US and China. The US is already suppressing China very badly in the field of chips. Plus it's the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, and we don't want the two countries to be in conflict, or even to lose both sides so that the US will be able to benefit.

Ei Sun Oh: Years ago, we were moving between China and the US: let China buy us dinner and let the US protect us with guns. China and the US also tolerant us. Now it's obviously not working so well, the US won't allow us to play with China. However, Malaysia still has a pragmatic, let's-all-get-rich-together mentality. We have not followed the various sanctions imposed by the US on Huawei in previous years at all. As far as Malaysia's current domestic situation is concerned, we certainly don't have some over-the-top strategic considerations, nor do we have such a policy of in collusion  with the US yet.

Zhang Youhua: The Taiwanese authorities have repeatedly gone along with the US, which will one day hollow out Taiwan's economy, and this is where TSMC is very helpless. The island of Taiwan has become the focus of the Sino-US battle over the chip issue, which is linked to geopolitics, and this really needs our serious thinking. I have to say that it is a future trend that whoever has high technology and whoever controls the chips will control the world. Seeing that TSMC is still taking into account the mainland market, the US is going to take Japan to press TSMC. So far, Japan has rarely taken a stand, but instead, it's South Korea and Taiwan that are making great moves. I have to say that this has put a lot of pressure on the mainland.

Dr. Peter Qiu concludes that ruling a large country is like cooking a small dish, either in solidarity or in struggle, but always with trepidation and like walking on thin ice. In the world nowadays, the future destiny of everyone is connected to the back of any international relationship, and no one can do it alone.

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【Peter Qiu's Live】Technology showdown: competition between China and the US vs. what's next for you and me

Peter Qiu Club is a brand of Center for Globalization Hong Kong. After three years of preparation, Peter Qiu Club was formally established in August 2019. With the aim of “living transparent lives and embracing our world”, Peter Qiu Club provides activities, like seminars and high-end industry forums, for the rapidly growing middle and upper-middle class. Peter Qiu Club relies on Dr Peter Qiu’s international vision, theoretical height and long-term accumulation in the forefront of international politics and economics, providing support for members’ career advancement and enterprises’ development.

Members can enjoy ten exclusive services, including "Peter Qiu's Insight", "Peter Qiu's Delivery", "Reading Club", "Peter Qiu`s Monthly Talk".

# Research Reports
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### 1. Peter Qiu's Insight
Produced by CGHK, Peter Qiu's Insight provides members with the latest inside information, exclusive analysis and trends on international markets and technology trends, updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday! Peter Qius Insights published by the the CGHK has put forward many early warnings on real estate and RMB exchange rate issues and situations this year, effectively helping members avoid risks; and accurate forecasting the carbon neutrality, aesthetic medicine, digital currency, and “third-generation semiconductor” and other sectors; on the international trade side, Peter Qius Insights also continues to output the latest observations combined with policy and market dynamics, helping members to take the lead.

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### 2. Peter Qiu's Delivery 
The research team of the CGHK goes deep into the Peter Qiu`s Delivery published every Monday to Saturday, and provides members with analysis, research and comments on latest events with forward-looking thoughts, so that you can "know earlier, know more, and know deeper", understand the truth of the world hidden under the water, have a rich and unique cognitive framework, which help you walk more steadily!

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# Videos
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### 1. Peter Qiu Live 
This is a one-to-one in-depth live interview hosted by Dr. Peter Qiu. On the 3rd Saturday nights of each month, Dr. Peter Qiu will invite global experts, scholars and celebrities in the fields of economy and politics to deeply analyze the pattern of international relations, the trend of the global economy and the process of globalization as well as provide suggestions and supports for personal and business development.

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### 2. Peter Qiu's Monthly Talk
This is a once-a-month live program that bases on international vision and keeps up with current events. Through the interaction with members, Dr. Peter Qiu will answer members' questions specifically. 

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# Audios
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### 1. Reading Club
Within a year, Dr. Peter Qiu will talk about 100 thoughtful and instrumental books for members.

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### 2. Peter Qiu's Podcast
"Peter Qiu`s Podcast" is an audio product developed by Dr. Peter Qiu to comprehensively sort out many international and domestic issues. It is updated every Monday to Friday at 5:00 pm. The audio content relies on Dr. Qiu's more than 30 years of experience of walking at the forefront of the international economy, spanning multiple fields such as news, academia, and business, with an international and cross-disciplinary perspective as the background, and academic research as the chassis, and finally integrate and launch products with a self-contained knowledge system.

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# Business Cooperation Platform
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### 震海·萃 
"震海·萃" aims to practice the concept of innovation, coordination, openness and win-win, focusing on resource integration, developing with high-quality network exchanges, providing members with the exchange of resources, centered on the core sections public services including talent support, legal support, academic exchanges, and economic trends analysis, which are based on authoritative, world-class expert team support and professional services. We are going to build a full-chain integrated public service platform.

After 2 years of preparation and 3 years of hard work, with a dual-core model driven by think tanks and private sectors, we service for entities in multiple domains, building high-quality business ecosystem through think tank consulting and customized services, media advertising, institutionalized membership system, butler-style resource matching, brand incubation, etc, in order to continuously improve industry efficiency, work with partners to promote business prosperity, make knowledge and resources more powerful, and make success more than wealth.

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# Courses
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### Future Academy

With a high degree of foresight, Future Academy looks at the trends and implications of global technology and geo-strategy in the next 20 years.

The four main sections are Trend Academy, Transformation Academy, Thinking Academy and Wealth Academy.

The sections include Technology, Wealth, Enterprise Development, Culture, Investment, Education, Law, Health, etc.

Future Academy aims to help individuals to leapfrog through their mindset and skills, while assisting companies to maximise their returns through international perspectives.

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Peter Qiu Club’s Service

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